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Pickering, 2002: Evaluation of lightning flash rate parameterizations for use in a global chemical transport model, J. Climate model studies show that in a future warmer climate we may have less thunderstorms overall, but more intense thunderstorms, which may increase the amount of lightning by 10% for every one degree global warming. Lightning itself is also linked to variations in upper tropospheric water vapour, and tropospheric ozone, both of which are strong greenhouse gases. Lightning activity is positively correlated with surface temperatures on short time scales, and due to projections of a warmer climate in the future, one of the key questions is related to the impact of future global warming on lightning, thunderstorms, and other severe weather. The diurnal and seasonal heating of the continental landmasses results in large fluctuations in temperature, influencing atmospheric stability, and the development of thunderstorms. The distribution of lightning around the planet is directly linked to the Earth’s climate, which is driven by solar insolation.
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